The State Bank of India has rejected claims that India’s economic growth in the first quarter of financial year 2026 27 was only 2.6 percent, arguing that the calculation is based on an incorrect comparison of GDP figures from different statistical series.
The debate emerged after former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg questioned the recently released GDP figures. Garg pointed to the revision in the previous year’s current price GDP and argued that the reported growth could appear much lower if the earlier figure was used for comparison. His calculation produced a nominal GDP growth rate of around 2.6 percent.
SBI Research has challenged that approach, saying the calculation mixes figures prepared under different GDP series. According to SBI, this does not provide a statistically valid year on year comparison. The bank said the latest GDP estimate should instead be compared with the revised figure for the corresponding quarter under the same statistical series.
According to official data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, India’s real GDP grew by 7.8 percent year on year during the April to June quarter of FY27. Real GDP at constant prices was estimated at Rs 81.36 lakh crore, compared with Rs 75.46 lakh crore in the corresponding quarter of FY26.
Nominal GDP, which is measured at current prices, was reported to have grown by 10.3 percent. Nominal GDP for Q1 FY27 was estimated at approximately Rs 88.3 lakh crore.
The disagreement centres on the previous year’s GDP figure. When the Q1 FY26 GDP data was initially released in August 2025, nominal GDP was estimated at about Rs 86.1 lakh crore. Under the revised GDP series introduced with a new base year of 2022 to 2023, the corresponding Q1 FY26 figure was revised to around Rs 80 lakh crore, with SBI referring to a comparable figure of Rs 80.4 lakh crore for its calculation.
SBI explained that the 2.6 percent figure is obtained by comparing the latest Q1 FY27 nominal GDP of Rs 88.3 lakh crore with the earlier Q1 FY26 estimate of Rs 86.1 lakh crore. The bank said those figures belong to different statistical series and should not be combined to calculate a meaningful year on year growth rate.
Instead, SBI said the latest Rs 88.3 lakh crore figure should be compared with the revised comparable figure of about Rs 80.4 lakh crore. On that basis, nominal GDP growth works out to approximately 9.7 percent. This is lower than the officially reported nominal growth of 10.3 percent but substantially higher than the disputed 2.6 percent calculation.
SBI Group Chief Economic Adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh also criticised what he described as an incorrect interpretation of the GDP data. The bank used strong language in responding to the 2.6 percent calculation, saying that the comparison was not an appropriate way to assess the country’s economic performance.
The bank further argued that even if the alternative nominal growth calculation of 9.7 percent were considered, India’s underlying real growth would remain strong. SBI estimated that real GDP growth would work out to around 7.4 percent after adjusting the deflator under that alternative scenario, compared with the officially reported 7.8 percent.
The broader controversy is linked to India’s latest GDP series, which uses 2022 to 2023 as the base year. The updated series incorporates revised historical information and changes to statistical methods and data sources. The government has said these changes are part of the normal process of improving national accounts and do not represent an attempt to artificially increase economic growth.
Statistics Secretary Saurabh Garg has also defended the revised GDP methodology. He said the revisions reflect updated data sources and methodological improvements. The new series includes more detailed price information and changes in the way economic activity is measured. According to the government, these changes are intended to improve the accuracy and consistency of national accounts.
GDP figures are also subject to revisions as more complete information becomes available. SBI pointed out that quarterly GDP estimates can be revised both upwards and downwards. The bank said that between FY22 and FY25, quarterly GDP data underwent 25 upward revisions and 12 downward revisions. It argued that revisions should therefore not automatically be interpreted as evidence of manipulation.
The latest Q1 FY27 GDP estimate is itself not considered final. Further revisions can take place as additional economic information becomes available. SBI said the current figures will continue to be updated as part of the normal national accounts process.
The debate also highlights the importance of comparing GDP figures on a like for like basis. GDP growth calculations depend on the underlying statistical series, base year and methodology used to estimate economic output. Comparing a new series figure with an unrevised figure from an older series can produce a number that does not accurately represent the change in economic activity.
For India’s economy, the officially reported 7.8 percent real GDP growth remains the central headline figure for Q1 FY27. Nominal GDP growth was reported at 10.3 percent. SBI’s alternative calculation of 9.7 percent relates specifically to a comparison using revised figures within the new series and should not be confused with the official real GDP growth rate.
The controversy is therefore less about whether GDP data can be revised and more about which figures should be used when calculating year on year growth. SBI maintains that the 2.6 percent figure does not make a valid comparison because it combines data from different series. The bank’s analysis indicates that using comparable revised data produces a significantly higher nominal growth rate of 9.7 percent.
The government has similarly maintained that the revised GDP series reflects improvements in statistical methodology rather than an attempt to manipulate the growth rate. Independent economists and former officials have continued to debate the interpretation of the data, making the issue an important topic in India’s economic discussion.
For readers assessing the latest GDP numbers, it is therefore important to distinguish between real GDP growth, nominal GDP growth and alternative calculations based on revised historical data. The official figures show 7.8 percent real growth in Q1 FY27, while nominal growth was reported at 10.3 percent. SBI’s 9.7 percent figure represents an alternative nominal comparison using revised data, whereas the 2.6 percent figure criticised by SBI comes from comparing figures from different GDP series.