The Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) remains a key area of concern for tsunami risks on the west coast of India and neighboring countries. This seismically active region, located at a triple junction where the Indian, Arabian, and Eurasian tectonic plates converge, has been responsible for past major earthquakes and tsunamis, such as the deadly 1945 earthquake that triggered a tsunami, killing over 4,000 people in Pakistan, Oman, Iran, and the UAE.
The most recent significant earthquake in the region occurred on September 24, 2013, when a 7.7-magnitude inland earthquake in Balochistan, Pakistan, generated a tsunami. The region remains under constant surveillance by Indian researchers. According to Om Prakash Mishra, Director of the National Centre for Seismology, while it is true that stress is accumulating in the region, lower-magnitude earthquakes are releasing much of the built-up stress, preventing a larger catastrophic event.
Experts note that the MSZ is still not fully understood, particularly when it comes to earthquake-triggered landslides or mudslides, which can further complicate tsunami risks. The region’s limited historical data on seismic activity adds to the uncertainty surrounding the prediction of future events. To address this knowledge gap, a multinational research project involving India, Iran, Pakistan, Oman, and the UAE, led by UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), is underway. The project focuses on studying deep-sea sediments to uncover the history of past tsunamis, offering valuable insights into the region’s seismic behavior.
Globally, it is well-established that 80% of tsunamis are triggered by earthquakes, with the remaining 20% caused by landslides, volcanic eruptions, or meteotsunamis. INCOIS, in collaboration with neighboring countries, is also focusing on the study of "atypical tsunamis" caused by non-seismic events, which are still poorly understood.
In addition to research efforts, India’s response to tsunami threats has been bolstered by the establishment of the Indian Tsunami Early Warning Centre (ITEWC) on October 15, 2007. The center, located at INCOIS, is equipped with a range of advanced tools, including seismic stations, bottom pressure recorders, and tide gauges. It is capable of issuing tsunami advisories within 10 minutes of detecting tsunamigenic earthquakes.
Over the past 15 years, the ITEWC has tracked 679 earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.5 or higher. Through ongoing research, the deployment of tsunami buoys, and the development of hazard maps, India’s tsunami warning system has been significantly strengthened. International collaboration and cutting-edge monitoring systems continue to play a crucial role in mitigating the risks posed by future tsunamis in the region.
