Arsenal will face Brentford on New Year’s Day, in what promises to be an exciting London derby despite the absence of Bukayo Saka, who is sidelined with a hamstring injury. Mikel Arteta, the Gunners’ manager, has expressed confidence in his squad's ability to perform without the star winger. Arsenal’s recent 1-0 victory over Ipswich Town showcased their resilience and ability to grind out results, despite not having their key player. This win was crucial for Arsenal, especially considering that Liverpool’s dominant performance against West Ham extended their lead at the top of the Premier League to nine points.
While Arteta’s side sits behind the league leaders, the manager remains optimistic, stating that the depth of the squad will help them cope in Saka’s absence. Arsenal has a solid mix of experienced players and emerging talents, and Arteta believes the team's strength and adaptability will be key against Brentford. With the Gunners aiming to start 2025 on a positive note, this match is an important one as they look to maintain their title challenge.
On the other hand, Brentford has faced recent struggles, with the team failing to win in their last three league games. Their most recent outing ended in a goalless draw against Brighton, which saw goalkeeper Mark Flekken forced off early due to injury. To make matters worse, Ben Mee, one of their defensive mainstays, also sustained a muscle injury in the same match. Despite these setbacks, Thomas Frank, the Brentford manager, has expressed hope that Flekken will be fit to play against Arsenal, but the extent of his injury is still uncertain. Frank confirmed that Christian Norgaard is available for selection and will be part of the squad, but Ben Mee will be out for a few weeks, which is a blow to Brentford’s defensive options.
Frank also spoke highly of Hakon Valdimarsson, the backup goalkeeper, who could be called upon to make his Premier League debut if Flekken is not fit for the match. Valdimarsson impressed during his cameo against Brighton, and Frank praised the youngster’s performance, saying, "He did very well against Brighton, and I was very pleased with his performance."
Bryan Mbeumo has been one of Brentford’s standout performers in recent London derbies, contributing to 14 goals in his last 15 matches, with 12 goals and 2 assists. Although he has not scored in his last two league appearances, Mbeumo has been a consistent threat throughout the season, scoring 10 goals in 18 appearances. With the absence of Ivan Toney, Mbeumo’s role as the primary attacking threat for Brentford will be even more crucial. The forward will be eager to add to his goal tally against a strong Arsenal side and will look to take advantage of any defensive lapses.
For Arsenal, David Raya has had a solid season but faces some challenges as the Gunners have not kept a clean sheet in their last seven away matches. Despite this, Raya has been impressive individually, boasting a 73.7% save percentage, which ranks second only to Robert Sanchez among goalkeepers with five or more appearances this season. Raya will need to be at his best to prevent Brentford from capitalizing on any potential defensive lapses, particularly with the threat of Mbeumo and the physicality of Brentford's attack.
Arsenal enters this match as clear favorites, based on their strong recent form and their superior head-to-head record against Brentford. The Gunners have won their last three away matches against Brentford without conceding a goal, and Brentford has not beaten Arsenal in their last five top-flight meetings. Arsenal’s defense will look to extend this streak, though achieving four consecutive away wins with clean sheets against a Premier League opponent hasn’t been done since their victory over Sunderland between 2003 and 2008.
However, Brentford has shown they are no pushovers, especially in their first league fixture of the year. The Bees have an impressive record in New Year’s Day matches, having won their last five such encounters. This gives them some optimism as they look to cause an upset and start 2025 on a high note.
According to Opta’s Win Probability, Arsenal is heavily favored to win, with a 62.1% chance of victory. Meanwhile, Brentford has a 17.1% chance of winning, and the draw probability stands at 20.9%. Arsenal's superior form, squad depth, and recent head-to-head dominance give them the edge going into this match, but Brentford’s resilience and dangerous players like Mbeumo make it a potentially tricky encounter for Arteta’s side.
In conclusion, while Arsenal’s squad depth and recent form make them the favorites, Brentford will look to capitalize on any weaknesses and make it a challenging contest at Gtech Community Stadium. With both teams battling injuries and missing key players, this London derby could go down to the wire as Arsenal aims for another vital three points in their pursuit of the Premier League title.
