India's Festive Smartphone Sales Expected to Decline 12 Percent in 2026, Says Counterpoint Research
India's smartphone market is expected to face a challenging festive season in 2026, with sales volume projected to decline by 12 percent compared with the previous year. According to Counterpoint Research, rising memory component costs and higher smartphone prices are putting pressure on consumer demand. Despite the anticipated decline in the number of devices sold, the overall market value is expected to grow by 5 percent.
The forecast points to a change in consumer purchasing behaviour during one of India's most important shopping periods. Instead of buying new smartphones primarily because of festive discounts, consumers are expected to focus more closely on affordability, financing options, exchange values and the benefits offered by individual devices.
Smartphone Sales Volume Expected to Fall
Counterpoint Research expects India's smartphone sales volume to decline by 12 percent year on year during the 2026 festive season. The research firm's forecast covers the period from October 8 to November 8, 2026.
The festive season traditionally attracts consumers looking to purchase new smartphones, with retailers and manufacturers competing through special offers and promotional campaigns. However, higher device prices are expected to make some buyers more cautious this year.
Consumers who do not urgently need a replacement may choose to continue using their existing phones for longer. Others may postpone upgrades until prices become more affordable or until they find suitable financing and exchange offers.
This change in purchasing behaviour could affect the number of smartphones sold during the season. The actual outcome will depend on consumer spending, the attractiveness of available offers and developments in the wider economy.
Market Value Could Increase Despite Lower Sales
Although smartphone sales volume is expected to fall, Counterpoint Research projects that the overall market value could increase by 5 percent during the festive period.
The difference between sales volume and market value is important. Sales volume measures the number of devices sold, while market value reflects the total monetary value of those sales. If average selling prices rise, the market's value can increase even when fewer smartphones are purchased.
Higher device prices and continued spending on selected premium smartphones are expected to contribute to this trend. Some consumers may prioritise better specifications, longer device life and upgraded features when replacing their phones.
However, an increase in market value does not necessarily mean that smartphone manufacturers will sell more devices or that every brand will experience growth. Performance may vary according to pricing, product availability, consumer preferences and the strength of individual offers.
Rising Memory Costs Put Pressure on Prices
One of the key factors behind the expected slowdown is the rising cost of memory components used in smartphones. DRAM and NAND are important components that support device performance and data storage.
Higher component costs can increase manufacturing expenses for smartphone companies. Manufacturers may respond by raising retail prices, changing the specifications offered at particular price points or adjusting their product ranges.
These changes can affect budget-conscious consumers most strongly because they often have limited flexibility in their spending. When an entry-level or mid-range smartphone becomes more expensive, buyers may delay purchases, select a less expensive model or continue using their current devices.
Rising memory costs may also limit manufacturers' ability to offer substantial discounts. As a result, the festive season could rely less on aggressive price reductions and more on financing plans, exchange schemes and targeted promotions.
Financing and Trade-In Offers May Influence Purchases
Counterpoint Research expects financing options and trade-in programmes to play an important role in supporting festive smartphone sales.
Financing arrangements can allow consumers to spread payments over time instead of paying the full price upfront. Trade-in and exchange schemes can reduce the effective cost of a new device by providing a value for an eligible old smartphone.
These options may be particularly relevant for consumers considering higher-priced models. However, buyers should compare the total amount payable, interest charges, eligibility conditions, exchange valuations and any additional fees before accepting an offer.
Retailers and smartphone brands may also compete through bundled benefits, bank offers and model-specific promotions. The success of these measures will depend on whether they make devices sufficiently affordable for consumers whose budgets are under pressure.
Consumer Behaviour Is Becoming More Selective
The forecast suggests that purchases during the 2026 festive season may be driven increasingly by replacement needs rather than by discretionary upgrades or first-time purchases.
Consumers whose phones are damaged, outdated or no longer meet their needs may continue to buy new devices. Those with relatively recent smartphones may be more willing to delay an upgrade.
Buyers may also compare product durability, software support, battery performance, storage capacity and overall value before making a decision. Premium smartphones could continue attracting consumers who are prepared to spend more, while price-sensitive buyers may focus on affordable alternatives.
These trends could create a more competitive environment for manufacturers, especially if the number of active buyers is smaller than in previous festive seasons.
Outlook for India's Smartphone Market
India's festive smartphone market is expected to be shaped by higher prices, cautious consumer spending and the availability of attractive purchase offers. Although the projected 12 percent decline in sales volume signals pressure on demand, the anticipated 5 percent increase in market value indicates that higher average prices and selective spending may support total sales value.
The forecast remains an industry projection rather than a confirmed final sales result. Actual smartphone sales will depend on consumer demand, price movements, retailer promotions and market conditions throughout the festive period.
For consumers, comparing prices and financing terms may be more important than relying on headline discounts alone. For smartphone companies, balancing rising component costs with affordability is likely to remain a central challenge.
Overall, Counterpoint Research's forecast indicates that India's 2026 festive smartphone season could become more value-driven, with fewer devices sold but higher total market value. The final results will show how effectively brands and retailers respond to consumers' changing budgets and purchasing priorities.
