India’s imports of Venezuelan crude oil are expected to increase significantly in October 2026, potentially reaching their highest level in nearly seven years. The expected rise comes as Indian refiners look for competitively priced crude amid higher prices for Russian oil and changing global trade conditions.
According to Kpler estimates cited in recent reports, Venezuelan crude deliveries to India could reach approximately 465,000 barrels per day in October, compared with around 196,000 barrels per day in September. If the scheduled cargoes arrive and are discharged as planned, the October volume would represent the highest level of Venezuelan crude imports into India since December 2019.
Reliance Industries is expected to play an important role in these shipments. Reports indicate that Venezuelan cargoes headed for India are listing Sikka as their destination. Sikka port serves the Jamnagar refinery complex in Gujarat, operated by Reliance Industries. The Jamnagar complex is one of the world’s largest refining facilities and has the processing capabilities required to handle heavier crude grades.
The increase in Venezuelan oil purchases is closely linked to pricing. Venezuela’s Merey crude is a heavy and high sulfur grade that generally requires specialised refining capabilities. However, the crude is currently available at a significant discount compared with some competing supplies. The price advantage can help Indian refiners offset the additional transportation costs involved in bringing crude from Venezuela to India.
Russian crude has traditionally been an important source of oil for India because of its competitive pricing. However, recent reports indicate that Russian crude has become more expensive, reducing some of its price advantage over alternative supplies. Kpler data cited in reports showed that Russia’s share of India’s crude imports declined to around 35 percent in September from as high as 56 percent in July.
The shift does not mean that Russia has lost its position as a major supplier to India. Russian crude remains an important component of the country’s energy supply. However, refiners are increasingly evaluating alternative sources based on price, freight costs, refining requirements and geopolitical considerations.
India had resumed purchases of Venezuelan oil in February after an extended pause. The renewed trade followed changes in the sanctions environment surrounding Venezuelan oil exports. Since then, Venezuelan crude has gradually become part of India’s broader effort to diversify its crude supply sources.
Kpler senior manager Sumit Ritolia said Venezuelan crude has become increasingly important to India’s diversification efforts since the beginning of the year. However, he expects actual October deliveries to be closer to 350,000 barrels per day because some vessels may not discharge before the end of the month. This means the projected 465,000 barrels per day figure should be viewed as an estimate based on scheduled cargoes rather than a confirmed final import figure.
Shipping schedules are another factor that could influence the final October numbers. At least two tankers were expected to reach India’s western coast toward the end of the month, according to ship tracking data. Delays in arrival or unloading could therefore reduce the volume recorded for October.
The type of crude being imported is also significant. Venezuela’s Merey crude is dense and contains high levels of sulfur, making it more difficult to process than lighter crude grades. Not every refinery can process such oil continuously or in large quantities. Refiners with sophisticated processing units, such as Reliance’s Jamnagar complex, have greater flexibility in handling heavier crude.
At the same time, rising tanker rates could affect the economics of Venezuelan crude imports. Venezuela is geographically much farther from India than traditional suppliers in the Middle East and Russia. While the discount on Venezuelan crude can compensate for part of the additional transportation cost, higher freight rates could narrow that advantage.
The expected increase in Venezuelan crude imports highlights how Indian refiners are adjusting their sourcing strategies in response to changing international oil prices and supply conditions. For refiners, the decision to purchase crude is influenced not only by the headline price but also by freight costs, quality, refinery compatibility and the regulatory environment.
The October increase is therefore an important development in India’s crude oil sourcing pattern. If the scheduled cargoes arrive as expected, Venezuelan supplies could reach their highest level in several years. However, actual imports may differ from current estimates because of shipping schedules, unloading delays and changes in crude economics.
For India, the development also reflects the continuing diversification of crude suppliers. With global oil markets affected by geopolitical developments, sanctions, freight costs and changing crude price differentials, Indian refiners are continuing to assess supplies from multiple regions. Venezuelan crude could remain attractive as long as its price discount is sufficient to compensate for transportation and processing challenges.
