US Midterm Elections 2026: Pew Survey Highlights Changing Preferences Among Hispanic Trump Voters
A new survey by the Pew Research Center has highlighted changing political preferences among Hispanic voters who supported Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election. According to the findings, 24 percent of these voters are not committed to supporting Republican candidates in the 2026 House elections. The results come ahead of the US midterm elections, which will determine the balance of power in Congress.
The survey findings have drawn attention because Hispanic voters are an important voting group in several competitive congressional districts. Their preferences could influence the outcome of closely contested races, particularly in areas where Republican candidates are seeking to retain their seats.
However, the 24 percent figure does not mean that all these voters intend to support Democrats. The survey separates voters who prefer another candidate from those who remain undecided, while a smaller proportion explicitly say they would vote for a Democratic candidate.
Pew Survey Reveals Voting Preferences Among Hispanic Trump Supporters
The Pew Research Center survey examined the voting preferences of Hispanic registered voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. It included responses from people who had supported different candidates in the 2024 presidential election.
Among Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024, 65 percent said they would support the Republican candidate in their congressional district. Meanwhile, 11 percent said they would vote for the Democratic candidate.
Another 14 percent preferred a different candidate, while 10 percent were unsure whom they would support.
Together, the voters who preferred another candidate or remained undecided accounted for 24 percent. This is the group that may not support the Republican candidate, although their final choices cannot be determined from the survey alone.
The distinction is important because being undecided or preferring an alternative candidate does not automatically mean that a voter has shifted to the Democratic Party.
Hispanic Voters Could Influence Competitive House Races
Hispanic voters have become an important part of the political landscape in the United States. Their voting preferences can influence election results in states and congressional districts with substantial Hispanic populations.
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump made gains among Hispanic voters compared with previous Republican presidential campaigns. However, the latest Pew survey suggests that some of those voters are reconsidering their choices or have not yet decided which congressional candidate to support.
This development could become significant in competitive House districts where the difference between winning and losing may be relatively small.
Republican candidates are therefore likely to focus on maintaining support among voters who backed Trump in the previous presidential election. Democratic candidates, meanwhile, may attempt to attract voters who are dissatisfied with the administration or uncertain about their preferred candidate.
The final impact will depend on voter turnout, campaign issues and the decisions voters make on Election Day.
Trump’s Approval Rating Among Hispanic Voters
The Pew survey also reported a decline in Trump's job approval rating among Hispanic voters.
According to the findings, 24 percent of Hispanic registered voters approved of Trump's performance as president at the time of the survey. His approval rating among Hispanic voters who supported him in the 2024 presidential election had also declined considerably from the beginning of his second term.
The survey found that 57 percent of Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024 continued to approve of his job performance. This was lower than the 93 percent recorded among the same group at the beginning of his second term.
These figures indicate that support for Trump among some Hispanic voters has weakened. However, the survey also shows that a majority of Hispanic Trump supporters still intend to vote for Republican congressional candidates.
Economy and Immigration Remain Important Issues
Economic conditions are among the major issues influencing Hispanic voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The cost of living, fuel prices, employment and household financial concerns can all shape voting decisions.
The survey indicates that economic concerns have become increasingly important to Hispanic voters. Some respondents who supported Trump in 2024 have also expressed less positive views about the country's economic conditions compared with earlier in his second term.
Immigration policy is another significant issue. The Trump administration's approach to immigration enforcement and deportations has attracted different responses from voters.
Views on these policies vary even among Hispanic voters who supported Trump in 2024. While some continue to support the administration's approach, others have expressed concerns about the level of immigration enforcement.
These issues could influence campaign discussions as Republican and Democratic candidates seek support from Hispanic communities.
Democrats Hold an Advantage Among Hispanic Registered Voters
The broader findings of the Pew survey show that Democratic congressional candidates have an advantage among Hispanic registered voters overall.
According to the survey, 51 percent of Hispanic registered voters said they would support the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 24 percent who preferred the Republican candidate. The remaining respondents were either undecided or preferred another candidate.
The findings also indicate that Hispanic voters who supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election largely continue to favour Democratic congressional candidates. Among this group, 84 percent said they would support the Democratic candidate in their House race.
These figures show that voting preferences differ considerably depending on how respondents voted in the previous presidential election.
What the Findings Could Mean for the 2026 Midterms
The 2026 US midterm elections will determine control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. All 435 voting seats in the House and 35 Senate seats are being contested.
The outcome will influence the ability of President Donald Trump and the Republican Party to advance their legislative priorities during the final two years of his current presidential term.
If Democrats gain control of the House, they could exercise greater influence over congressional committees, legislation and investigations into the administration. Republican candidates will therefore be under pressure to retain support in competitive districts.
The Hispanic vote could be one of several factors shaping these contests. However, polling results should not be treated as predictions of the final election outcome. Voter preferences can change, and the people who participate in surveys may not all cast ballots.
The Pew findings provide an indication of current political preferences rather than a confirmed picture of how Hispanic voters will vote on Election Day.
As the election approaches, the choices of Hispanic voters who supported Trump in 2024 will remain an important part of the wider political discussion. The key question is whether Republican candidates can retain their support or whether more voters will move towards alternative candidates in the congressional races.
