The expiration of the New START Treaty has renewed global debate over nuclear arms control, particularly after the United States revived allegations that China may have conducted a covert nuclear test in 2020. The development has prompted fresh discussion about whether the international community could be entering a new phase of strategic competition among major powers.
The New START Treaty, signed between the United States and Russia, was widely regarded as the last major bilateral nuclear arms control agreement limiting deployed strategic nuclear warheads. Its expiry has left a significant gap in the global arms control framework, raising concerns among security analysts about transparency and verification in nuclear arsenals.
In Washington, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Yeaw spoke at an event hosted by the Hudson Institute, where he referred to new analysis of seismic data related to an underground event in June 2020 at China’s Lop Nor nuclear site. Lop Nor, located in western China, has historically been associated with nuclear testing activities.
According to Yeaw, fresh examination of seismic signals suggested that the event detected on June 22, 2020, may have been consistent with an explosion rather than a natural earthquake. He cited data from a remote monitoring station in Kazakhstan that reportedly recorded a magnitude 2.75 seismic event originating roughly 450 miles from the monitoring location, in the direction of Lop Nor. Yeaw stated that the characteristics of the seismic readings were not consistent with typical earthquake patterns and aligned more closely with what might be expected from an underground explosive test.
China has previously denied conducting nuclear tests in violation of international norms and maintains that it adheres to its international obligations. There has been no new official response from Beijing specifically addressing the revived allegation at the time of reporting.
The timing of the renewed claim has drawn attention because it follows closely on the expiry of the New START Treaty. Analysts note that without major arms control agreements in force between leading nuclear powers, mutual suspicion and strategic rivalry could intensify. While China is not a party to New START, its growing nuclear capabilities have increasingly become a subject of discussion in Washington and among allied nations.
Global nuclear governance largely relies on treaties such as the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty and voluntary moratoriums on nuclear testing observed by many countries. Although the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty has not formally entered into force, most nuclear armed states have refrained from conducting explosive nuclear tests for decades.
Security experts caution that allegations of undisclosed nuclear testing, if unverified or unresolved through diplomatic channels, could contribute to heightened tensions. Transparent communication, data sharing and international monitoring mechanisms are often cited as critical tools to prevent escalation.
The broader question raised by the latest developments is whether the international system is moving toward renewed arms competition reminiscent of earlier decades. Observers emphasise that diplomatic engagement and multilateral dialogue remain essential to maintaining strategic stability in a changing global security environment.
