US President Donald Trump is facing a difficult political environment as the country approaches the November 2026 midterm elections, with several recent opinion polls showing his approval rating at or near the lowest levels recorded during his presidency.
The decline has been particularly noticeable on economic issues, including inflation, the cost of living and fuel prices. The continuing US military conflict with Iran has also become a significant issue for voters, especially as the conflict has contributed to higher energy prices.
A Reuters Ipsos poll conducted in September found Trump’s overall approval rating at 32 percent, described by Reuters as the lowest of his political career. His approval had fallen from 35 percent in the previous week. The survey also found that approval among Republican respondents had declined to 73 percent from 82 percent a week earlier.
The Reuters Ipsos survey showed that economic concerns were a major factor behind the negative ratings. Only 17 percent of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while 51 percent of Republicans who disapproved of his handling of the cost of living outnumbered the 44 percent who approved. The findings suggest that affordability has become an important concern even within Trump's own political base.
Other recent surveys have produced similarly weak approval numbers, although the exact figures vary because of differences in polling dates, samples and methodology.
An Emerson College poll reported by Forbes placed Trump’s approval at 39 percent, with 58 percent disapproving. A CNN SSRS poll cited in the same report put his approval at 33 percent. A separate Reuters Ipsos survey had recorded a 32 percent approval rating, while an NBC News survey reported a 36 percent rating earlier in September. These differences demonstrate why individual polls should be considered separately rather than treated as a single definitive measurement.
The economy has emerged as one of the biggest challenges for the Trump administration. According to a recent Marquette Law School national survey, Trump’s overall approval stood at 37 percent. His approval on the economy was 28 percent, while only 20 percent approved of his handling of gas prices and 19 percent approved of his handling of inflation and the cost of living. Approval of his handling of the Iran war stood at 26 percent in that survey.
Fuel prices have become especially sensitive because of the conflict involving Iran. Rising energy costs affect household budgets directly through gasoline and diesel prices and can also increase transportation and production costs across the wider economy.
Recent reporting has highlighted growing concern among Republican politicians and candidates about the political impact of the Iran conflict and higher fuel prices. TIME reported that some Republican candidates and lawmakers have increasingly called for an end to the war, while recent polling has shown declining approval among Republican voters for Trump's handling of the conflict.
The issue is particularly important because the midterm elections determine control of the US House of Representatives and Senate. Unlike a presidential election, Trump himself is not on the ballot. However, his approval rating and political standing can influence how voters view candidates from his Republican Party.
Recent polling also indicates that economic issues are playing a major role in voters' thinking ahead of the elections. The Reuters Ipsos survey found that the cost of living was the top issue identified by voters as important to their November voting decisions. The survey also showed that voters were increasingly dissatisfied with the administration's handling of economic conditions.
At the same time, Trump's support remains strong on some issues. The Marquette survey found that his highest approval ratings were on border security and immigration, with 49 percent and 43 percent approval respectively. This indicates that the decline in his overall approval does not represent uniform opposition across every policy area.
Historical comparisons also require caution. Pew Research Center reported in August that Trump's approval rating was 34 percent in a July survey, lower than his 40 percent rating at a comparable point during his first term in 2018 and lower than most recent presidents at similar stages. More recent September polls have shown his rating falling further in some surveys.
A RealClearPolling analysis published on September 25 said Trump's net approval in its polling average had reached around minus 21 points, with approximately 39 percent approving and 60 percent disapproving at that point. The analysis noted that his approval had reached a level comparable with his previous term's lowest point.
The different polling results show that Trump's approval remains fluid and that individual surveys can produce different figures. However, several recent polls point in the same broad direction: economic dissatisfaction, high fuel costs and concerns about the Iran conflict are weighing on his overall approval.
For Republicans, the issue is particularly significant because candidates campaigning for Congress must address voter concerns about household expenses while also dealing with Trump's continued influence over the party.
The upcoming midterm elections will provide a major test of how voters respond to these issues. National approval polls provide information about public sentiment, but they do not by themselves determine the result of individual House or Senate races, which are decided state by state and district by district.
For now, the polling data show that Trump enters the final weeks before the midterms with historically weak approval numbers in several surveys, alongside declining ratings on the economy, fuel prices, inflation and the Iran war. His continued strength among parts of the Republican electorate, particularly on immigration and border security, remains an important part of the political picture.
The November elections will ultimately provide the clearest indication of how these issues translate into voting decisions across the United States.
